Head's Up - Possible Turkey Shortage for Thanksgiving

[Swine Spectator]

I friend of mine is the banquet manager for one of the hotels near the French Quarter. He was telling me that they anticipate a shortage of turkeys around Thanksgiving this year and that they had already purchased all of the birds that they needed.

I did some Google searches and found this:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/17/health-birdflu-poultry-idUSL1N0Z22LI20150617

The worst-ever U.S. outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza, or bird flu, has raised concerns about higher turkey prices this holiday season. The outbreak has claimed about 7.8 million turkeys in seven states this year, many of them culled to control the virus' spread....

...Amanda Martin, senior analyst with Indiana-based Express Markets Inc Analytics, said that Tuesday's report offered a "hint" of the bird flu's impact since an unknown number of breeder flocks were hit by the outbreak...

..."To see that it is down 7 percent makes me think, that's probably going to mean the big, whole birds for Thanksgiving are going to be extremely hard to come by," said Martin...

Sounds bad, but then there's this:

USDA's May 22 Cold Storage Report showed there were 394.4 million pounds of turkey in cold storage during April 2015, up 5.2 percent from April 2014.

My read of this is that larger birds will be in short supply, but smaller ones should be available. I don't know if this will affect overall pricing. I usually do two smaller birds (10-12 lb). I smoke one and roast the other.

Just thought I'd share in case it helps any Brethren plan their holidays.

David

 

[smoke ninja]

Well thsnks for the heads up, we'll see how it goes. I highly doubt ill go to the market in November and they'll be out birds. Reminds me of the false supply scare they give us with gas.

 

[landarc]

Well, thanks for the heads up, I normally buy two small fresh birds, one of which gets steamed to death, so I suppose it could be frozen as well.

 

[RBoehm]

I had a sneaky suspicion this may happen. Chicken prices are well over normal in my area, so it stands to reason that turkey would be as well.

1st Beef prices - bad weather, gas prices
2nd Pork prices - virus
now poultry - virus

Things that make me say Hmmmm

 

[Doug Crann]

I had a sneaky suspicion this may happen. Chicken prices are well over normal in my area, so it stands to reason that turkey would be as well.

1st Beef prices - bad weather, gas prices
2nd Pork prices - virus
now poultry - virus

Things that make me say Hmmmm

Pretty much...

 

[Huh? What?]

Half my family/friends are allergic to poultry, so we generally do prime rib for Thanksgiving.

 

[Rusty Kettle]

Arghh! Now the turkey is probably going to be smaller this year. We lost our bottom dollar grocery store, thanks Aldi's, and now we are going to be paying more for turkey. Maybe I will just smoke a few thanksgiving day fattys and say forget the darn bird.

 

[STLBBQer]

This will probably be a chance for the industry to raise turkey prices and see how that affects demand. I know when there was a hop shortage several years ago, beer prices went up. When the hop supply recovered, beer prices remained the same. The higher prices didn't affect demand, so they stayed at the hop shortage prices.

 

[Swine Spectator]

If there really is a shortage I might make a Cornish hen for everyone at the table. :-D

 

[wormraper]

This will probably be a chance for the industry to raise turkey prices and see how that affects demand. I know when there was a hop shortage several years ago, beer prices went up. When the hop supply recovered, beer prices remained the same. The higher prices didn't affect demand, so they stayed at the hop shortage prices.

wouldn't surprise me in the least

 

[cats49er]

Guess I'll have to a goose.The Canadian goose eats good.

 

[Jason TQ]

Ah good. I've been wanting to do a non traditional menu for a while :-D. Bummer though because I always did enjoy the after Thanksgiving turkey sales to stock the freezer.