BBQ Logging and Brisket Analytics

[toddcc1]

Garbage in garbage out. You are not capturing the proper variables in your analysis so your results are flawed. Done time and IT are dependent on cooking temperature, heat transmission mechanism (conduction convection radiant) thickness volume and surface area, and the specific qualities of the meat.

Your data is based on an extremely small sample that is not representative of the full range of brisket sizes and shapes. You don't seem to have any variation in cook temperatures or heat transmission etc. You assume a normal distribution (or several) but have no evidence that shows your population can be reasonably assumed to be normally distributed.

The software is spitting out results, but you need to understand the assumptions behind the formulas and realize that where you are violating those assumptions, the resulting R squared, T stat and standard error will be incorrect, potentially grossly incorrect.

Yes, you're correct. Temps matter, which I qualify. Done time and IT are the same and they do relate to temps, which is why I control my temps and have stated as such. Thickness and surface volume, hmmmm. Now that one, that one is a challenge. I did only use weight, the mean of which was 12.6 lbs. So you got me there, though by selection alone, if the brisket was too abnormal in shape/size but weighed 13 lbs., I probably wouldn't buy it. I also suspect you and many others on this forum would likely follow suit. Not an exact science, sure. Then again, processors and butcher's attempt to create consistency in their product and the only two factors they rely upon, the grade and the weight. They don't say anything about the surface volume or thickness...just weight and beef grade.

I believe I understand a few assumptions and stated those. Fifteen samples is not reliable. Thirty is considered the bare minimum. I use the normal distribution because it's statistically convenient, because I can use the mean and I can use the standard deviation. And most importantly, because the Central Limit Theorem allows me to.

 

[HunkyDory]

I am a database programmer and I do tend to digitize things more than most but my data collection effectiveness varies in an inverse relationship to the number of beers and or margaritas consumed during the cook.

Seriously what would help is a data logging thermometer setup to track multiple temperatures in the cooker and in the meat at regular intervals i.e. five minutes. It would be interesting to see the effect of different temperature profiles such as starting at 225 then ramping to 300 toward the end or starting at 350 and ramping down to 225 for the final hour or so. I have noticed on in some cooking situations the internal meat temp can actually go down from say 170 to 165 when the cooker temp is reduced from 225 to 200. Apparently the energy used to break down the connective tissues uses up the thermal energy in the system and that needs to be fed continuously.

Does anyone know if such a multiple temperature logging setup is available?

 

[GrillBillie_D]

Does anyone know if such a multiple temperature logging setup is available?

The iGrill2 will log up to 4 probes placed anywhere (I had it in 3 different meats and one in the pit at grate level) and presents data in a graph over time. Does that sound like what you are trying to see?

 

[16Adams]

I am a fan of not knowing. You can literally never have bought a piece of meat, go online watch and mimic 3-4 minute video and be a patio hero with zero thermometers. Cooker comes with free shipping

I didn't like math or statistics.

But I do like this thread. It's interesting. It reminds me of why I don't compete nor utilize a basket of technology. I just cook.

 

[tom b]

Geez I feel pretty dumb after reading all this info.

yep!

 

[HunkyDory]

The iGrill2 will log up to 4 probes placed anywhere (I had it in 3 different meats and one in the pit at grate level) and presents data in a graph over time. Does that sound like what you are trying to see?

Thanks. It does look interesting. I will research if there is a capability to export the data to a file.

Still I do realize there is no substitute for experience. The feel of a probe going into a piece of meat or the bend of a rack of ribs or the twist of a chicken leg.

 

[BillN]

Hmmm just got my first stick burner, I am looking forward to smoking a brisket on the new cooker, was planning on following Aaron Franklin's method and just enjoy the process by letting the cooker run where she wants to run and the brisky will be done when she's done. I don't own any remote thermometers just a thermopen for food safety and to not over cook meats that I like to eat rare/medium rare.

 

[Smoke on Badger Mountain]

I'm now wondering why I read this. Many folks have a system. But one based on temp for cuts like brisket and butt is a flawed one. Producing great food in general is an art, not a science. If you know your craft and know your pit that is all you need. Happy you have something that works for you though.

 

[defib]

The interesting thing about this is that I am halfway through my statistics course. Very interesting.