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Competition BBQ *On Topic Only* Discussion regarding all aspects of Competition BBQ. Experiences competing or visiting, questions, getting started, Equipment, announcements of events, Results, Reviews, Planning, etc. Questions here will be responded to with competition BBQ in mind. |
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07-16-2013, 08:58 PM | #121 |
Babbling Farker
Join Date: 09-22-06
Location: Pleasant Valley NY
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Admittedly I am not the mathematician that many of you are, I understand and agree with you that there is not enough of a constant in the equation to utilize the new data to to predict a statistical probability of future outcomes. The new data can however provide and excellent analytical review of an event that has already taken place and I think that is where it's value is.
The new scoring system will allow me to see for example that over the course of the 24 entries judged by table x only 1 top ten score in any category. Understandably, I don't get to sample any of the food but I can further determine that out of the 24 entries judged 3 were submitted by current or former Jack/AR champs, 10 were from teams currently in the Top 50 in there respective category, 1 was a Sam's regional champion and 5 others were from 3 teams with 11 combined GC's this year. Looking at the quality of the teams submitting these entries, I think it is very reasonable to think those results are the more likely the result of a scoring anomaly than deviation of your process/recipe. Now I can see that the brisket I way overcooked but finished 2nd with was more than likely due to me hitting the table that put 14 entries into the top ten from 11 teams that have never had top 10 than judges suddenly liking brisket cooked to 215*.
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07-17-2013, 08:14 AM | #122 |
Quintessential Chatty Farker
Join Date: 04-21-06
Location: Lake Ponderosa-Montezuma, IA
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Here's a thought, how about they make a nine table and a 8 table and so on and you just take your chance on where you land?
Then you guys can figure the statistical chances of which table you would hit based on the order you hit the turn in table and throw in the odds of which hand you use to carry your box? Go for it. Ed
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07-17-2013, 08:27 AM | #123 | |
is One Chatty Farker
Join Date: 06-11-08
Location: Ames, Iowa
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We are not talking about normalizing how an individual judge scores, but rather the table as a whole, and across all the tables at a contest. You may still the straight 777s, but it would more likely be from one judge at all four tables you hit, rather than one table with four judges killing you.
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07-17-2013, 09:09 AM | #124 | |
is One Chatty Farker
Join Date: 09-14-10
Location: Rogers, AR
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07-17-2013, 09:11 AM | #125 | |
Babbling Farker
Join Date: 04-22-10
Location: NEW ENGLAND
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quite different IMHO. doesn't really make a difference though probably because there is always the human factor. however, if you balance the tables by the numbers, it is possible, over time, every entry in every category, from every table COULD start getting the exact same totals.
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07-17-2013, 09:47 AM | #126 | |
is One Chatty Farker
Join Date: 06-11-08
Location: Ames, Iowa
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I do believe there is a correlation between scoring and experience, and am thankful for the reps who go to great lengths to ensure tables are sorted thoroughly based on this variable. Hopefully, as data is collected from the new scoring system, light will be shed on the nature of the correlation, and yield more information that may help refine the table sorting process. In the end we all want the best food, and not luck to win the day.
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07-17-2013, 10:06 AM | #127 |
Full Fledged Farker
Join Date: 10-20-09
Location: Midland VA
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I had a thought. This is an honest, and non-sarcastic, proposal. What if judges took a number from a hat from 1 to x (with X being the total number of tables) as they entered the tent and they were seated at the number of the table they pulled? No additional sorting by experience, no breaking up spouses, etc. Then the distribution of the judges WOULD be truly random with zero chance of manipulation, smoothing of data, etc. The luck of the draw might result in a table from H-E-Double Hockey Sticks, and it might create a really favorable table, but over time it'd probably even out. Assuming there were enough tables, if reps made sure teams didn't hit a table more than once it would be random luck whether or not you hit a super or awful table. This is assuming there really is such a thing as good or bad tables as opposed to it just looking that way when you persuse the data of a single comp. My theory is this is pretty much what happens already, but maybe if you take any manipulation out of the equation it does become 100% random. If KCBS wanted they could still use the detailed scoresheets to identify outlier judges and take whatever action deemed appropriate (counseling, reeducation, exile to the salt mines of Urumqi China or complimentary lifetime membership in the American Vegan Society).
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07-17-2013, 10:12 AM | #129 |
Full Fledged Farker
Join Date: 10-20-09
Location: Midland VA
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Even if they gave all 9s?
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07-17-2013, 10:49 AM | #130 | |
is One Chatty Farker
Join Date: 02-11-10
Location: Northern VA
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Quote:
wallace
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07-17-2013, 01:40 PM | #131 | |
is One Chatty Farker
Join Date: 09-14-10
Location: Rogers, AR
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07-17-2013, 02:02 PM | #132 |
is Blowin Smoke!
Join Date: 01-01-05
Location: Southern Arizona
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You answered it yourself.
Many competitors do EVERYTHING THEY CAN to remove any trace of randomness to their whole process. THEY DO NOT WANT RANDOM JUDGING. They want what they consider fair and equal judging. For the record, I am not personally saying this is my point of view, but it is a point of view of many very excellent competition barbeque teams. |
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07-17-2013, 04:14 PM | #133 | |
Babbling Farker
Join Date: 04-22-10
Location: NEW ENGLAND
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Quote:
the use of random in this thread isn't what your'e thinking.
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07-17-2013, 04:51 PM | #134 | ||
is Blowin Smoke!
Join Date: 01-01-05
Location: Southern Arizona
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07-17-2013, 04:56 PM | #135 |
Babbling Farker
Join Date: 04-22-10
Location: NEW ENGLAND
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fair enough.
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