Bacon shortage in 2013?

sincitydisciple01 · 09-26-2012, 08:49 AM

Assuming the this article holds water, bacon isn't the only thing on a pig that's going to go up.

Not trying to be an alarmist, but I think there's probably a good chance that the trend continues where the # of competition teams stays stagnant (or even possibly declines a small %) or at least teams scale back on comps. As a result, some of the competitions that have been operating in or near the red may shut down.

http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/09/26/...age-is-coming/

Thoughts?

swinn · 09-26-2012, 08:52 AM

I have seen the same report through several different news agencies for what that is worth. it's the #baconpocalypse!

Swamp Donkeyz BBQ · 09-26-2012, 09:06 AM

I wouldn't think there would be a shortage. Prices will probably get pretty high due to the shortage of corn for feed which would cause an increase in feed prices.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

columbia1 · 09-26-2012, 10:15 AM

The problem is corn and hay are ALREADY high and farmers are sending their breeding stock to market because it is not cost-effective to hold them right now, we raise lambs and feed prices have KILLED us this summer so we need to recoup some money too hopefully at least break even on the year and that means selling some of our less productive breeding ewes this fall. We are scaling back about 50%, which means 50% fewer lambs for next years market, hence your shortage. This is going on with beef also, it is just not the pork producers facing problems. Feed prices were so high this summer we cannot even sell our current lambs for a profit. This mess most likely will put a few farmers out of business once and for all, it has been tough for the last few years ekking out a profit for most, this is the final nail for some producers.

Outnumbered · 09-26-2012, 10:19 AM

Pray for rain and a big corn crop next year.

JMSetzler · 09-26-2012, 10:21 AM

Are the feed prices high because so much corn is going into ethanol production now instead of its normal channels?

columbia1 · 09-26-2012, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMSetzler

Are the feed prices high because so much corn is going into ethanol production now instead of its normal channels?

This years drought is the main reason, ethanol does contribute to the problem however. I have family back in Iowa and they have lost 90% of their corn crops due too lack of rain.

Outnumbered · 09-26-2012, 10:29 AM

Yes and no, JM. Ethanol has helped support corn prices, but there are countless studies that show the corn price would still be high without ethanol. Keep in mind that ethanol plants only use the corn starch to produce the grain alcohol. The oil and protein are then captured for other uses, including livestock feed called dried distiller grains (DDGs). It's not a 1:1 feed value for DDGs to regular corn, but it's pretty good.

Before ethanol was big on the scene, we were growing about 10-11 billion bu. of corn annually in the United States. If we didn't have the drought this year, we would have produced about 14 billion bushels of corn. As it is now, USDA estimates we'll get about a 10.5 bill. bu. crop. That may be pushing it, IMO.

Ethanol demand does contribute to the issue, but there are also lots of other things pushing demand. One of the main drivers is the growth of protein consumption in other parts of the world. We are shipping a lot of corn to China, maybe not a significant percentage of our crop yet, but when it's traditionally been no corn to China, it doesn't take much to make an impact. And that will continue to grow as the Chinese expand their lifestyle and demand more protein. That will also open our export markets for meat, and we have to feed animals corn here, as well. India is growing their protein consumption, parts of Africa are, as is South America.

Many of these countries have relied on grass-fed beef, but they are figuring out that the marbling you get from grain-fed animals is a lot better eating.

Outnumbered · 09-26-2012, 10:35 AM

Here's a graph from USDA showing corn production the US. The Renewable Fuel Standards were passed under the 2005 Energy Policy Act. You can see where the expansion of corn production was sparked by that policy.

columbia1 · 09-26-2012, 10:42 AM

Nice chart Outnumbered, I updated it with the current projections of 10.5B bushels numbers for 2012.

Not very pretty!!!

DJnKY · 09-26-2012, 12:14 PM

That thread title may cause wide-spread, if not global, panic on this forum!

Gnaws on Pigs · 09-26-2012, 12:18 PM

Good thing the South is infested with feral hogs.

Skidder · 09-26-2012, 12:34 PM

Oh my gosh I guess I better go out and horde all the pork I can find. It is what it is. Just like gas prices ....nothing we can do.

Scottacious · 09-26-2012, 12:35 PM

And in Western Canada we had bumper crops of corn this year...

cricky101 · 09-26-2012, 02:16 PM

This less alarmist article forecasts a 2.5-3% price increase next year in the U.S. because of the increased feed costs from the drought.

http://www.minnpost.com/christian-sc...sh-group-warns

I'm not going to fill up my freezer. Yet.

09-26-2012, 08:49 AM	#1
sincitydisciple01 Full Fledged Farker Join Date: 01-18-08 Location: Prairie Village, KS Name/Nickname : Jason	Bacon shortage in 2013? Assuming the this article holds water, bacon isn't the only thing on a pig that's going to go up. Not trying to be an alarmist, but I think there's probably a good chance that the trend continues where the # of competition teams stays stagnant (or even possibly declines a small %) or at least teams scale back on comps. As a result, some of the competitions that have been operating in or near the red may shut down. http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/09/26/...age-is-coming/ Thoughts? __________________ UDS x 2 Pitmaster iQue 110 Vertical offset Bandera knockoff KCBS: 2010 CBJ: 2011 Damn near impossible to lose [COLOR=Lime]BRIGHT GREEN[/COLOR] superfast Thermapen On Twitter @BigIronBBQ

09-26-2012, 08:52 AM	#2
swinn Full Fledged Farker Join Date: 12-07-09 Location: Kansas City, Mo.	I have seen the same report through several different news agencies for what that is worth. it's the #baconpocalypse! __________________ KC CHIEFS UDS! New Braunfels Bandera: 22.5 inch RED Weber Kettle: Sunbeam 340 Gasser

09-26-2012, 10:15 AM	#4
columbia1 is one Smokin' Farker Join Date: 01-15-12 Location: Kalama Wa.	The problem is corn and hay are ALREADY high and farmers are sending their breeding stock to market because it is not cost-effective to hold them right now, we raise lambs and feed prices have KILLED us this summer so we need to recoup some money too hopefully at least break even on the year and that means selling some of our less productive breeding ewes this fall. We are scaling back about 50%, which means 50% fewer lambs for next years market, hence your shortage. This is going on with beef also, it is just not the pork producers facing problems. Feed prices were so high this summer we cannot even sell our current lambs for a profit. This mess most likely will put a few farmers out of business once and for all, it has been tough for the last few years ekking out a profit for most, this is the final nail for some producers. __________________ [URL="http://tombstonebbq.com"]"Tombstone BBQ"[/URL] PNWBA Board Member and Certified Judge. KCBS Custom 72" reverse flow smoker, 18" WSM, Weber Elite, ECB. and misc grills. [URL="https://www.facebook.com/TombstoneBbq?ref=hl"]Tombstone BBQ on Facebook[/URL]

09-26-2012, 10:19 AM	#5
Outnumbered is Blowin Smoke! Join Date: 09-18-11 Location: Smithville, Missouri, United States	Pray for rain and a big corn crop next year. __________________ Greg Vincent When I die, my goal is to have a visible smoke ring when the coroner cuts me open for the autopsy.

09-26-2012, 10:21 AM	#6
JMSetzler Babbling Farker Join Date: 04-25-11 Location: Valdese, NC Name/Nickname : John	Are the feed prices high because so much corn is going into ethanol production now instead of its normal channels? __________________ [URL="http://facebook.com/mancavemeals"]http://facebook.com/mancavemeals[/URL]

09-26-2012, 09:06 AM	#3
Swamp Donkeyz BBQ is one Smokin' Farker Join Date: 07-25-12 Location: Huntsville, Tx	I wouldn't think there would be a shortage. Prices will probably get pretty high due to the shortage of corn for feed which would cause an increase in feed prices. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

09-26-2012, 10:29 AM	#8
Outnumbered is Blowin Smoke! Join Date: 09-18-11 Location: Smithville, Missouri, United States	Yes and no, JM. Ethanol has helped support corn prices, but there are countless studies that show the corn price would still be high without ethanol. Keep in mind that ethanol plants only use the corn starch to produce the grain alcohol. The oil and protein are then captured for other uses, including livestock feed called dried distiller grains (DDGs). It's not a 1:1 feed value for DDGs to regular corn, but it's pretty good. Before ethanol was big on the scene, we were growing about 10-11 billion bu. of corn annually in the United States. If we didn't have the drought this year, we would have produced about 14 billion bushels of corn. As it is now, USDA estimates we'll get about a 10.5 bill. bu. crop. That may be pushing it, IMO. Ethanol demand does contribute to the issue, but there are also lots of other things pushing demand. One of the main drivers is the growth of protein consumption in other parts of the world. We are shipping a lot of corn to China, maybe not a significant percentage of our crop yet, but when it's traditionally been no corn to China, it doesn't take much to make an impact. And that will continue to grow as the Chinese expand their lifestyle and demand more protein. That will also open our export markets for meat, and we have to feed animals corn here, as well. India is growing their protein consumption, parts of Africa are, as is South America. Many of these countries have relied on grass-fed beef, but they are figuring out that the marbling you get from grain-fed animals is a lot better eating. __________________ Greg Vincent When I die, my goal is to have a visible smoke ring when the coroner cuts me open for the autopsy.

09-26-2012, 10:35 AM	#9
Outnumbered is Blowin Smoke! Join Date: 09-18-11 Location: Smithville, Missouri, United States	Here's a graph from USDA showing corn production the US. The Renewable Fuel Standards were passed under the 2005 Energy Policy Act. You can see where the expansion of corn production was sparked by that policy. __________________ Greg Vincent When I die, my goal is to have a visible smoke ring when the coroner cuts me open for the autopsy.

09-26-2012, 10:42 AM	#10
columbia1 is one Smokin' Farker Join Date: 01-15-12 Location: Kalama Wa.	Nice chart Outnumbered, I updated it with the current projections of 10.5B bushels numbers for 2012. Not very pretty!!! __________________ [URL="http://tombstonebbq.com"]"Tombstone BBQ"[/URL] PNWBA Board Member and Certified Judge. KCBS Custom 72" reverse flow smoker, 18" WSM, Weber Elite, ECB. and misc grills. [URL="https://www.facebook.com/TombstoneBbq?ref=hl"]Tombstone BBQ on Facebook[/URL]

09-26-2012, 12:14 PM	#11
DJnKY On the road to being a farker Join Date: 06-12-12 Location: Louisville,KY	That thread title may cause wide-spread, if not global, panic on this forum! __________________ Homemade offset stick-burner, UDS -- sorta slow Deltatrak , Maverick ET-732

09-26-2012, 12:18 PM	#12
Gnaws on Pigs is one Smokin' Farker Join Date: 05-22-10 Location: Smoky Mountains, NC	Good thing the South is infested with feral hogs. __________________ ...Half a yard full of crap to cook on like everybody else... Slow-to-average-speed [COLOR=dimgray]GRAY[/COLOR] Wal-Mart thermometer Just a hungry hillbilly lookin for a dead critter to cook Four [URL="http://www.bbq-brethren.com/forum/group.php?groupid=39"]Zeros[/URL] in one [URL="http://www.bbq-brethren.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=86"][COLOR=red]throwdown[/COLOR][/URL][COLOR=red],[/COLOR] baby! :bow:

09-26-2012, 12:34 PM	#13
Skidder Babbling Farker Join Date: 02-02-08 Location: Westfield,Ma.	Oh my gosh I guess I better go out and horde all the pork I can find. It is what it is. Just like gas prices ....nothing we can do.

09-26-2012, 12:35 PM	#14
Scottacious Found some matches. Join Date: 07-30-12 Location: Calagry, AB	And in Western Canada we had bumper crops of corn this year...

09-26-2012, 02:16 PM	#15
cricky101 Full Fledged Farker Join Date: 04-14-10 Location: Minnesota	This less alarmist article forecasts a 2.5-3% price increase next year in the U.S. because of the increased feed costs from the drought. http://www.minnpost.com/christian-sc...sh-group-warns I'm not going to fill up my freezer. Yet.