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Competition BBQ *On Topic Only* Discussion regarding all aspects of Competition BBQ. Experiences competing or visiting, questions, getting started, Equipment, announcements of events, Results, Reviews, Planning, etc. Questions here will be responded to with competition BBQ in mind.


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Unread 07-16-2013, 11:00 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by Slamdunkpro View Post
I guess I'm in the minority who think that all this table info is as useful as the history boards on roulette wheels. It's fun to use to play "what if" but otherwise statistically irrelevant. Regardless of what the score sheet says your table history at any contest is always N=1. In other words your history starts from scratch every new contest. Different judges, different table combinations different tastes. This is especially true if the judge average score is also N=1 (just the history for that contest) or if this a combined score average across all 4 meats.

If the judge's average score is cumulative then what does that really tell you? A judge averages 30.2 and you got a 32.5 from them. OK so your flavor profile hits well with that judge, but you already knew that from awards since if you consistently get scores over the judge's mean average you should be getting walks.
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Originally Posted by Muzzlebrake View Post
So you don't see any value in knowing that the product you turned in scored where it did due to it hitting either a good/hot table or bad/cold table. I think everyone has had that turn in they thought was great that tanked or sucked and they walked and wondered why. Granted I don't think there is much you can do about it but I see value in at least knowing that.
There is no value because (1) you don't know the circumstances of those tables and (2) you'll most likely never encounter that set of variables (judges at that table, other entries at that table) again. Back to the roulette example. The odds of any one number coming up are 37-1; if 18 comes up 6 times in a row what are the odds it will come up 18 the next spin? 37-1. The odds always remain the same because they reset every spin. Your contest history within the aspect of judges and tables and all variables (N) is always N=1. It resets every event.
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Unread 07-16-2013, 11:05 AM   #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Muzzlebrake View Post
So you don't see any value in knowing that the product you turned in scored where it did due to it hitting either a good/hot table or bad/cold table. I think everyone has had that turn in they thought was great that tanked or sucked and they walked and wondered why. Granted I don't think there is much you can do about it but I see value in at least knowing that.
I would disagree ... I think it tells you what kind of food was at that table. All of these remarks are being made without seeing or tasting the entries.

.. and again I think the new scoring is good. I am just afraid of how it will be used to single out judges and influence their scoring.
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Unread 07-16-2013, 11:39 AM   #93
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I would have left the Sam's Club contest last week wondering what went wrong with my brisket even though I cooked a good brisket. Based on past contest I figured a top 5 finish (my average in brisket this year is 168 over 14 contests) as this was one of the better briskets I have cooked this year, but finished 20th OA.

The new sheets showed that my brisket was at table 2. Table 2 had two total top 10 finishes. A 7th in ribs by Pig Skin and an 8th in pork. I talked to Scott before awards and he said he was happy with his ribs...which usually is a bad thing for the rest of us

At the brisket table I was with Tippy Canoe. Joe said that he cooked a good brisket too but finished 15th OA.

Table 4 had the following rankings (29 teams):

Chicken: 21, 22, 25, 26, 28, 29
Ribs: 7, 21, 23, 27, 29
Pork: 8, 15, 22, 26, 27, 28
Brisket: 15, 20, 26, 27, 28, 29

Now let's play this out another contest or two and say you have the bad luck of hitting the bad table. In the past, I would not have known that. I would probably have started to mess around with my recipe and then waste a couple of more contests trying to correct something that wasn't wrong in the first place.
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Unread 07-16-2013, 11:48 AM   #94
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jaestar View Post
In the past, I would not have known that. I would probably have started to mess around with my recipe and then waste a couple of more contests trying to correct something that wasn't wrong in the first place.
This is spot on in my opinion and the reason that I think this system is a huge improvement.

As jaestar pointed out at the Woodbury MN event of the bottom 4 placings in each category 12 of 16 came off of table 2. Thats either a trend or a very scary coincidence. (for the record, I'm not complaining about judges, I'm just saying I enjoy having a few additional facts to base any changes or feedback on)
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Unread 07-16-2013, 12:24 PM   #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jaestar View Post
I would have left the Sam's Club contest last week wondering what went wrong with my brisket even though I cooked a good brisket. Based on past contest I figured a top 5 finish (my average in brisket this year is 168 over 14 contests) as this was one of the better briskets I have cooked this year, but finished 20th OA.

The new sheets showed that my brisket was at table 2. Table 2 had two total top 10 finishes. A 7th in ribs by Pig Skin and an 8th in pork. I talked to Scott before awards and he said he was happy with his ribs...which usually is a bad thing for the rest of us

At the brisket table I was with Tippy Canoe. Joe said that he cooked a good brisket too but finished 15th OA.

Table 4 had the following rankings (29 teams):

Chicken: 21, 22, 25, 26, 28, 29
Ribs: 7, 21, 23, 27, 29
Pork: 8, 15, 22, 26, 27, 28
Brisket: 15, 20, 26, 27, 28, 29

Now let's play this out another contest or two and say you have the bad luck of hitting the bad table. In the past, I would not have known that. I would probably have started to mess around with my recipe and then waste a couple of more contests trying to correct something that wasn't wrong in the first place.
Come on now ... would you really have "come away wondering what went wrong" "started to mess around with my recipe"? OR would you have chalked it up to a bad table and made plans for Rockford.

(poking the bear) You finished in 6th place do you think you should have finished higher?
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Unread 07-16-2013, 12:28 PM   #96
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I'm just saying I enjoy having a few additional facts to base any changes or feedback on
I agree if thats all its used for.

But what if some of us dont want you guys having more info? Maybe this additional info should only go to teams that have not won a contest.
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Unread 07-16-2013, 12:37 PM   #97
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Sorry havent read the entire thread but...

The next thing to add for each judge is "scoring deviation".

Take the average score of the other 5 judges and compare it judge 6 score. Judge6 ScoreDev could be +7% or -5% for example. After say 10 contests judged we can identify judges that score much higher or much lower than average and try to address it. I know at least a couple judges in NEBS land with a ScoreDev of -35%

Or maybe even better write a judge seating program that mixes together judges so high scoring and low scoring judges are evenly distributed across the tables
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Unread 07-16-2013, 12:42 PM   #98
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Or maybe even better write a judge seating program that mixes together judges so high scoring and low scoring judges are evenly distributed across the tables
This should happen!
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Unread 07-16-2013, 12:50 PM   #99
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would it be easier to handicap tables at the end?

nevermind. if every table was even, there would be even more .0002 spreads
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Unread 07-16-2013, 01:52 PM   #100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ique View Post

Or maybe even better write a judge seating program that mixes together judges so high scoring and low scoring judges are evenly distributed across the tables
My thinking as well. Once the last judge checks in the rep clicks a button and the computer assigns judges to each table virtually instantly. Again, I'm not sure if the new program is keeping track of scoring across multiple contests or not, but if it is this would seem relatively simple.
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Unread 07-16-2013, 02:07 PM   #101
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Balls Casten View Post
Come on now ... would you really have "come away wondering what went wrong" "started to mess around with my recipe"? OR would you have chalked it up to a bad table and made plans for Rockford.

(poking the bear) You finished in 6th place do you think you should have finished higher?

I would have wondered what went wrong. I would have been 90% sure it was a bad table, but I would have still wondered if I really did cook as good of a brisket as I thought I did. After two or three bad contests I would start looking at making changes. I don't know statistically what the odds would be of hitting the bad table in three straight contests, but at least now it can be confirmed.

I don't think I should have finished higher or lower as 4/5 teams above me also hit table 2 and it is all part of the "luck of the draw". I'm not complaining about coming in 6th (actually really happy I did ) or complaining about the judges. The fact is that table 2 was a low scoring table at that contest and hitting that table or not hitting it could have drastically changed the outcome for teams.
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Unread 07-16-2013, 02:33 PM   #102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slamdunkpro View Post
I guess I'm in the minority who think that all this table info is as useful as the history boards on roulette wheels. It's fun to use to play "what if" but otherwise statistically irrelevant. Regardless of what the score sheet says your table history at any contest is always N=1. In other words your history starts from scratch every new contest. Different judges, different table combinations different tastes. This is especially true if the judge average score is also N=1 (just the history for that contest) or if this a combined score average across all 4 meats.

If the judge's average score is cumulative then what does that really tell you? A judge averages 30.2 and you got a 32.5 from them. OK so your flavor profile hits well with that judge, but you already knew that from awards since if you consistently get scores over the judge's mean average you should be getting walks.
It's perhaps useful if you want to convince yourself your bad day was the result of hitting "bad" tables and that a successful team had a good day because they hit "good" tables. A single day's i.e. comp's worth of results are not enough to determine if you were unlucky, the other guy was lucky or maybe you just didn't cook as well as you thought. Anyway, I can't influence what table I end up on, right? And even if I could how would I know which is good or bad?

After I get about 20 of these news scoresheets in hand, maybe I'll take a look and see if I see any "trends". But it's kind of like the time I had this ginormous 119 cut brisket and the fat on the deckle looked eerily like a face. Just because it looked like a face didn't mean there was actually a face there. Just because I think I see any trends doesn't mean there is anything of any real significance there. The only "trend" I am going to worry about is how I finish in each category and the overall. If I'm doing OK then I'm happy. If I start stinking it up, then I'll look at making changes. Really, it's all about how you finish on that day and in those circumstances. Once that set of entries, those judges and that set of competitors is dispersed it's back to zero.
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Unread 07-16-2013, 02:41 PM   #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Balls Casten View Post
I agree if thats all its used for.

But what if some of us dont want you guys having more info? Maybe this additional info should only go to teams that have not won a contest.
Thats the beauty of it though. Everyone comes away with the same info.
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Unread 07-16-2013, 04:38 PM   #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G$ View Post
How many contests are needed to make that number statistically meaningful?
Obviously the more data, the better the representation but I would be all for using that method of table balancing immediately. As the data set grows, the balance will be better and better.

If you have a different opinion, I would like to hear it.
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Unread 07-16-2013, 04:43 PM   #105
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I don't advocate any kind of judge training program based on their score history. G$ makes the perfect point as to why. There just won't be enough data. Judge reeducation is a dangerous path to go down.

BBQ judging is subjective. I have received a 180 and a 160 on essentially the same piece of meat at two competitions. The truth was probably somewhere in the middle. I would love to have that 160 be a 170, but I don't want to give that 180 pin back!
Respectfully, I disagree. Reeducation is hardly dangerous. If someone is doing something that is way outside the norm, it could very well be due to a lack of understanding and reeducation can easily and quickly solve that problem. Remember, we're not talking about reeducating judges that fall within a statistical norm but rather those who fall well outside of what could be considered a normal variance. A judge who regularly scores everything high or everything low is not really judging anyway.
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