Beef Prices going UP!

bbqgeekess · Feb 9, 2014

I noticed a week or so ago, a thread here mentioning that beef prices were going to go up.

Well they did for a friend that owns a burger joint. He said he's paying 20% more for the beef patties from his supplier than he did a couple weeks ago. This caused him to have to increase the price customers have to pay.

And now I hear a story about 9.7 million pounds of beef being recalled in California. This can't help the prices of beef I'd think because the supply is down.

This is all too depressing because the cost of beef is like twice what it was 5 years ago.

Side note: I heard propane costs are skyrocketing as well--a local refill station charged just $3 per gallon a few weeks ago and now is about $5 per gallon! Thank God I use charcoal these days.

tarheelsmoker · Feb 9, 2014

I was reading the other day that the North American cattle herd is down to a 50+ year low.
Some of this is due to the terrible drought last year and the very high cost of feed (also being contributed to by the high demand for corn for ethanol production due to 10% fuel supply guidelines).
However, beef is no longer America's meat of choice, as Chicken has now taken over. Hopefully this will help offset some of the prices.
Most of the time, the ranchers will adjust to what is needed, as long as they can afford to feed them, but I think you may be right, beef prices will probably be quite high this summer.

wjwheeler · Feb 9, 2014

I'm a conservative, southern republican...... you probably don't want me to even go there.

Westcoast Redneck · Feb 9, 2014

National beef just announced they are closing ther packing plant in Brawley CA. 1,300 people are losing ther jobs....and a lot more to follow when the **** rolls down hill.

It going to be ugly when the closing impacts the surrounding communities and cattle feeders!

FatCoyote · Feb 9, 2014

This is just to easy to let go by..... you know its all the nutty teabaggers in the Republican party that are causing the problems.....

landarc · Feb 9, 2014

California is in a significant drought, and due to a lot of people not wanting to admit it, there are going to be significant losses to the agricultural industry in CA. I am betting that almost all of the herds will be down to minimal/zero head within 3 to 4 months. There is just no water.

Diesel Dave · Feb 9, 2014

Bob you're right on that point.
But the price of corn last year was double the highest I've seen it in my life. The feed lots, 1/3 of them, could not afford to feed at that price and liquidated their stocks.
Now corn is at a regular price they need to refill the lots and are doing all they can.
But the herd isn't big enough to support the high demand. You'll see prices only go up for the next 5 years or so.

EDIT: And Ethanol has nothing to do with this as demand for grain has gone down a considerable percentage

Westcoast Redneck · Feb 9, 2014

landarc said:
California is in a significant drought, and due to a lot of people not wanting to admit it, there are going to be significant losses to the agricultural industry in CA. I am betting that almost all of the herds will be down to minimal/zero head within 3 to 4 months. There is just no water.

I agree

tarheelsmoker · Feb 9, 2014

landarc said:
California is in a significant drought, and due to a lot of people not wanting to admit it, there are going to be significant losses to the agricultural industry in CA. I am betting that almost all of the herds will be down to minimal/zero head within 3 to 4 months. There is just no water.

Oh Yeah, that too! Fruits and Vegetables produced in California that supply a tremendous amount of what we buy are going to be very, very expensive as well, especially when you consider the deep frost over much of Florida this winter.

There was also a pretty bad drought last year in the major feed producing parts of the Midwest. That's the drought I was referring to earlier.

landarc · Feb 9, 2014

Double D, I assume you are speaking to mid-west herds. Out here, it hasn't been the feed (not that feed prices aren't always on the table as a factor) over the past few years, it has been the water. There has been a quiet water war in extreme Northern California for a while now, and it will get worse with this lack of water.

At this point, there is not much of a solution, folks are going to see most of the ranches getting rid of their herds. Brands such as Harris Ranch and others will be in subsistence mode.

As for that recall, I don't have the details. But, I have little sympathy for packers who harvest and pack D&D animals to protect the bottom line.

Diesel Dave · Feb 9, 2014

Yes midwest and the east areas were heavily hit with the higher feed costs last year.
It was unprofitable to feed at those prices.

bbqgeekess · Feb 9, 2014

Well thank goodness I can make good use of affordable pork butt these days--going to be buying more of it.. I think pork will be the preferred meat in this household. I can smoke it and pull it, make buckboard bacon, chorizo, hot italian sausage, breakfast sausage, and a myriad of smoked cured sausages in natural casings. Going to get into dry curing faux pancetta, copicola etc..

Diesel Dave · Feb 9, 2014

And seriously as a cattle producer I'll be cutting my herd down seriously in the following year or so. We're only keeping this size as dad loves his cattle. To me they're more of an expense than profit maker as of late

Diesel Dave · Feb 9, 2014

Pork will be going up as well very soon. There's a shortage in the production vs demand as of right now. I know producers that are getting calls offering three times what they have contracted their hogs for.

bbqgeekess · Feb 9, 2014

Diesel Dave said:
Pork will be going up as well very soon. There's a shortage in the production vs demand as of right now. I know producers that are getting calls offering three times what they have contracted their hogs for.

Joy.. I can only eat so much chicken.. Like 3 or 4 times a month.

landarc · Feb 9, 2014

feeesh, there is always tilapia

landarc · Feb 9, 2014

Diesel Dave said:
Pork will be going up as well very soon. There's a shortage in the production vs demand as of right now. I know producers that are getting calls offering three times what they have contracted their hogs for.

Across the board, all feed prices are going to go up, as corn goes, so goes all grain. And again, there will be no CA wheat, corn, rice, alfalfa crops.

bbqgeekess · Feb 9, 2014

I need to buy a cheap rifle and learn how to hunt and kill myself a 500 pound animal .. then have enough meat for a year.

tarheelsmoker · Feb 9, 2014

Diesel Dave said:
Pork will be going up as well very soon. There's a shortage in the production vs demand as of right now. I know producers that are getting calls offering three times what they have contracted their hogs for.

Beef and pork prices will drive up demand for chicken. New chicken houses going up all over the place here in NC, almost all of them broiler houses. Of course they have to be fed too. IN my experience, the retail price of bacon is affected first for pork so if you see bacon going up, fresh pork will soon follow!

bbqgeekess · Feb 9, 2014

I think the demand for chicken has gone up, not because it is the preferred meat of choice, but because people simply can't afford beef.

Beef Prices going UP!

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