Bacon shortage in 2013?

I have seen the same report through several different news agencies for what that is worth. it's the #baconpocalypse!

I wouldn't think there would be a shortage. Prices will probably get pretty high due to the shortage of corn for feed which would cause an increase in feed prices.


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The problem is corn and hay are ALREADY high and farmers are sending their breeding stock to market because it is not cost-effective to hold them right now, we raise lambs and feed prices have KILLED us this summer so we need to recoup some money too hopefully at least break even on the year and that means selling some of our less productive breeding ewes this fall. We are scaling back about 50%, which means 50% fewer lambs for next years market, hence your shortage. This is going on with beef also, it is just not the pork producers facing problems. Feed prices were so high this summer we cannot even sell our current lambs for a profit. This mess most likely will put a few farmers out of business once and for all, it has been tough for the last few years ekking out a profit for most, this is the final nail for some producers.

Pray for rain and a big corn crop next year.

Are the feed prices high because so much corn is going into ethanol production now instead of its normal channels?

JMSetzler said:

Are the feed prices high because so much corn is going into ethanol production now instead of its normal channels?

Click to expand...

This years drought is the main reason, ethanol does contribute to the problem however. I have family back in Iowa and they have lost 90% of their corn crops due too lack of rain.

Yes and no, JM. Ethanol has helped support corn prices, but there are countless studies that show the corn price would still be high without ethanol. Keep in mind that ethanol plants only use the corn starch to produce the grain alcohol. The oil and protein are then captured for other uses, including livestock feed called dried distiller grains (DDGs). It's not a 1:1 feed value for DDGs to regular corn, but it's pretty good.

Before ethanol was big on the scene, we were growing about 10-11 billion bu. of corn annually in the United States. If we didn't have the drought this year, we would have produced about 14 billion bushels of corn. As it is now, USDA estimates we'll get about a 10.5 bill. bu. crop. That may be pushing it, IMO.

Ethanol demand does contribute to the issue, but there are also lots of other things pushing demand. One of the main drivers is the growth of protein consumption in other parts of the world. We are shipping a lot of corn to China, maybe not a significant percentage of our crop yet, but when it's traditionally been no corn to China, it doesn't take much to make an impact. And that will continue to grow as the Chinese expand their lifestyle and demand more protein. That will also open our export markets for meat, and we have to feed animals corn here, as well. India is growing their protein consumption, parts of Africa are, as is South America.

Many of these countries have relied on grass-fed beef, but they are figuring out that the marbling you get from grain-fed animals is a lot better eating.

Here's a graph from USDA showing corn production the US. The Renewable Fuel Standards were passed under the 2005 Energy Policy Act. You can see where the expansion of corn production was sparked by that policy.

Nice chart Outnumbered, I updated it with the current projections of 10.5B bushels numbers for 2012.







Not very pretty!!!

That thread title may cause wide-spread, if not global, panic on this forum!:biggrin1:

Good thing the South is infested with feral hogs.

Oh my gosh I guess I better go out and horde all the pork I can find. It is what it is. Just like gas prices ....nothing we can do.

And in Western Canada we had bumper crops of corn this year...

This less alarmist article forecasts a 2.5-3% price increase next year in the U.S. because of the increased feed costs from the drought.

http://www.minnpost.com/christian-s...bacon-shortage-its-coming-british-group-warns

I'm not going to fill up my freezer. Yet.

JMSetzler said:

Are the feed prices high because so much corn is going into ethanol production now instead of its normal channels?

Click to expand...

The same ethanol production thats destroying our cars and outboards that nobody wants except the corn producers.

Columbia's situation is definitely true across the board.

Pork in general has been on a fire sale here in Houston for the past 2 or 3 months. (I remember waiting for Baby Backs to drop to $1.99/pound to load up... that price has surfaced every 2 weeks for the past 3 months at least).

Thinking of picking up a 2nd freezer for the garage. Can't hurt to have extra, extra ribs on ice, right?