It is possible, and likely, that there will be condensate that forms when you are lighting your cooker. But, one whiff will tell you if you have steam and light blue, or white smoke. They smell different. Steam has almost no odor coming out of a cooker, Thin Blue smells sweet and has a light smoke aroma, white smoke smells acrid, sour, and there is a distinct burning aroma.
Over the years, I have learned to trust my sense of smell early in a cook, to get a feel for how the cook is going. It gets a little less acute after hours in smoke, but, you can still tell good smoke from bad 90% of the time.
I'm feeling bearish, and I'm packing a Wusthof Grand Brisket slicer from MABA
Whip It Off, Chambers!
"perhaps...but then again...maybe not..."