View Single Post
Unread 07-24-2013, 06:11 AM   #197
rolfejr
Full Fledged Farker

 
rolfejr's Avatar
 
Join Date: 08-09-10
Location: Forest Hill, MD
Downloads: 0
Uploads: 0
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slamdunkpro View Post
There is no value because (1) you don't know the circumstances of those tables and (2) you'll most likely never encounter that set of variables (judges at that table, other entries at that table) again. Back to the roulette example. The odds of any one number coming up are 37-1; if 18 comes up 6 times in a row what are the odds it will come up 18 the next spin? 37-1. The odds always remain the same because they reset every spin. Your contest history within the aspect of judges and tables and all variables (N) is always N=1. It resets every event.
Well said!
The only constant is you, the odds of seeing the same set of judges under the same circumstances is off the charts. If you adjust your style against one or two contest results you will always be chasing your tail.

We are still fairly new to this, 7 comps, and my thinking is that it will take about 10 - 12 to gather up enough data to start tweaking with confidence.

If you change every time you get a bad score, you will have random products with random success.
The best teams cook the same EVERY TIME until they find a consistent flaw in their process. They fix it and they improve.
That is the key to success, not chasing hot tables.
__________________
Rolfe Garrett
Certified BBQ Judge
Certified Table Captain

Rockin' Robyn's BBQ
rolfejr is offline   Reply With Quote