Your nose can really help you here. Don't be afraid to take a whiff of the smoke, up close. It will tell you a lot, do you smell fire, exhaust, jet fuel? Is it sweet or acrid/sour. Feel the moisture, you can tell right away if it is steam or smoke, smoke is always dry.
I'm feeling bearish, and I'm packing a Wusthof Grand Brisket slicer from MABA
"perhaps...but then again...maybe not..."