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Unread 07-16-2013, 02:33 PM   #102
Kit R
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slamdunkpro View Post
I guess I'm in the minority who think that all this table info is as useful as the history boards on roulette wheels. It's fun to use to play "what if" but otherwise statistically irrelevant. Regardless of what the score sheet says your table history at any contest is always N=1. In other words your history starts from scratch every new contest. Different judges, different table combinations different tastes. This is especially true if the judge average score is also N=1 (just the history for that contest) or if this a combined score average across all 4 meats.

If the judge's average score is cumulative then what does that really tell you? A judge averages 30.2 and you got a 32.5 from them. OK so your flavor profile hits well with that judge, but you already knew that from awards since if you consistently get scores over the judge's mean average you should be getting walks.
It's perhaps useful if you want to convince yourself your bad day was the result of hitting "bad" tables and that a successful team had a good day because they hit "good" tables. A single day's i.e. comp's worth of results are not enough to determine if you were unlucky, the other guy was lucky or maybe you just didn't cook as well as you thought. Anyway, I can't influence what table I end up on, right? And even if I could how would I know which is good or bad?

After I get about 20 of these news scoresheets in hand, maybe I'll take a look and see if I see any "trends". But it's kind of like the time I had this ginormous 119 cut brisket and the fat on the deckle looked eerily like a face. Just because it looked like a face didn't mean there was actually a face there. Just because I think I see any trends doesn't mean there is anything of any real significance there. The only "trend" I am going to worry about is how I finish in each category and the overall. If I'm doing OK then I'm happy. If I start stinking it up, then I'll look at making changes. Really, it's all about how you finish on that day and in those circumstances. Once that set of entries, those judges and that set of competitors is dispersed it's back to zero.
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