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View Full Version : Odds to win TOY


Merl
12-03-2009, 12:37 PM
The TOY is down to one of two scenarios. If either Iowa Smoky D's or I Smell Smoke wins the Tempe contest then they will win the KCBS TOY.

Pellet Envy does not have to compete, but should Rod win GC, he protects his position.

The odds of a GC at Tempe are as follows:

Pellet Envy has 28 competitions winning 7 (GC)
Iowa Smoky D's has 22 competitions winning 7 (GC)
and
I Smell Smoke has 20 competitions winning 5 (GC)

Since it takes a GC for either Darren or Steve to win, here are the odds of winning a GC at any given contest.

Pellet Envy: 32%
Iowa's Smoky D: 35%
I Smell Smoke: 25%

While the greatest odds of winning goes to Darren, but since Rod does not have to win, then you have adjust the odds.

75% of the contest Steve does not win GC
68% of the contest Rod does not win GC
65% of the contest Darren does not win GC

Now that you still do not know, call your friends in vegas, make your bets and I wish you luck.

I also wish good luck to all three teams and all the teams who will get calls at Tempe.

Merl

Plowboy
12-03-2009, 12:47 PM
Slow day in court?

Ford
12-03-2009, 01:08 PM
Well it looks like between them they have a 92% chance of winning. Good luck to the other 30+ teams entered as according to this your odds are 8% for all of you combined.

I think it's neat that these 3 teams are competing and I wish them the best but I'm rooting for some local team to show up big and say you can't just come into our backyard and push us around. Have a great weekend everybody, I wish I could have come down. Cooking for a party this weekend and that's for sure money.

KC_Bobby
12-03-2009, 02:18 PM
Are they going to be set up beside each other bordering a semi-circle so fans and camera's can catch all the action?

Merl
12-03-2009, 03:01 PM
We put a team between Rod and Darren last comp in AZ. Did not really matter, Rod was in a very closed ez up and Darren only had one side open. So the picture opportunities are limited.

Steve arrived late and was in another area. He is very transparent and it was rumored he gave out his recipes following the contest.

Merl

Mike - CSBBBQ
12-03-2009, 10:49 PM
I think it is great all three are in AZ making it a cook-vs-cook race. Can we ask for anything more? Have had the pleasure of meeting Rod and Steve on multiple occasions and someday hope to meet Darren.

One thing we can all agree on is BBQ cooks/teams are typically pretty dang good folks to be around. I know for sure it is the case with Rod and Steve and confident the same can be said for Darren. Wishing all three consistent temps and quaility end products. Hope they and everyone else at the comp cook as good as they can so they know they did their best. Heck, as we all know it is up to the judges anyway...hope the judges are consistent for all of the entries as I'm sure ther is going to be some good Q to judge.

One thing for sure the temps will be better than Demopolis. Pulled in this evening and it is downright chilly! Good luck to all of the teams and thank you to Rod, Steve, and Darren for making it an exciting TOY. Good luck to all :-D

Ron_L
12-03-2009, 11:24 PM
The TOY is down to one of two scenarios. If either Iowa Smoky D's or I Smell Smoke wins the Tempe contest then they will win the KCBS TOY.

Pellet Envy does not have to compete, but should Rod win GC, he protects his position.

The odds of a GC at Tempe are as follows:

Pellet Envy has 28 competitions winning 7 (GC)
Iowa Smoky D's has 22 competitions winning 7 (GC)
and
I Smell Smoke has 20 competitions winning 5 (GC)

Since it takes a GC for either Darren or Steve to win, here are the odds of winning a GC at any given contest.

Pellet Envy: 32%
Iowa's Smoky D: 35%
I Smell Smoke: 25%

While the greatest odds of winning goes to Darren, but since Rod does not have to win, then you have adjust the odds.

75% of the contest Steve does not win GC
68% of the contest Rod does not win GC
65% of the contest Darren does not win GC

Now that you still do not know, call your friends in vegas, make your bets and I wish you luck.

I also wish good luck to all three teams and all the teams who will get calls at Tempe.

Merl

Can you go over that one more time for me, Merl?

Oh... never mind... My brain hurts! :-D

RangerJ
12-03-2009, 11:53 PM
Well it looks like between them they have a 92% chance of winning. Good luck to the other 30+ teams entered as according to this your odds are 8% for all of you combined.

I think it's neat that these 3 teams are competing and I wish them the best but I'm rooting for some local team to show up big and say you can't just come into our backyard and push us around.

My team ( myself) appreciates that 8% chance. Odd's are I won't challenge for either of the top awards, but I'll be there, pits lit and meat smoking...